Freight Plan Development and Goods Movement Analysis. The broadest application of freight models is to support plan development and freight analysis. These evaluations help government agencies understand general patterns of current and expected future freight in their regions, along with providing a high-level view of what types of commodities, modes, and network infrastructure is most relevant for their area.
Asset Management. Freight has a major contribution to infrastructure deterioration, especially for highways. For effective asset management, expected traffic flows need to be known in detail. It is important for transportation agencies to understand asset management throughout their districts. In addition, other considerations may arise for planners and policy-makers as conditions change. Two examples are:
- A state is experiencing rapid growth in its manufacturing sector, leading to increased freight demand. By using freight modeling, state planners can identify critical infrastructure improvements needed to support this growth, such as expanding rail networks, upgrading highways, or developing new intermodal facilities. This ensures the state’s transportation network can handle increased freight volumes without bottlenecks.
- Freight investments and land use decisions can have important distributive welfare effects, reducing social equity in economic opportunities. How can impacts of local decisions on social equity be predicted?
Traffic Impact Analysis: Transportation bottlenecks, which occur at major congestion points in the system, are often caused by surges in demand that exceeds the capacity of transportation infrastructure. One example of this is the build-up of container ships outside of the San Pedro Bay ports during the pandemic in 2022. In addition:
- The pandemic had profound effects on supply chains, be it for consumer products, intermediate products or raw materials. Effects involve inventory excesses and shortages, strongly varying in time. Can we detect bullwhip type effects and what are their impacts on infrastructure needs?
- More generally a port city may rely on efficient freight movement to sustain its economy. The city’s transportation planners can use freight modeling to identify bottlenecks and evaluate the impact of new infrastructure projects, such as expanding port facilities, developing new intermodal terminals, or expanding rail links. By understanding these dynamics, they can make informed decisions to enhance the city’s competitiveness and reduce congestion and emissions.
- For planning a new highway bypass, freight models can help determine how much truck traffic will divert from local roads, easing urban congestion. This allows planners to make informed decisions about the design and implementation of the bypass, ensuring it effectively reduces congestion and enhances the overall efficiency of the transportation network.
Economic Impact Analysis: The share of trucks in traffic varies strongly across locations, and so does the economic importance of truck flows. Freight models can be used to help map these variations, and to plan traffic management adaptions to such variations in volumes and needs.
Tolling and Traffic Management: Other examples in this area include:
- A state DOT is exploring the introduction of tolling on major freight corridors to generate revenue for infrastructure improvements. Freight modeling helps assess the potential impact of tolling on freight transportation costs, route choices, and overall traffic patterns. This allows the DOT to design a tolling system that balances revenue generation with minimal disruption to freight operations.
- A city may plan to host a major event (e.g., 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles) and anticipates a surge in freight activity to support the influx of visitors. Freight modeling helps the city planners test the impact of increased deliveries of goods, construction materials, and food supplies. It also allows them to evaluate the need for additional infrastructure (e.g., expanded warehousing) to accommodate the increased volume of goods. This allows them to develop strategies to manage peak freight periods, ensuring the event runs smoothly and minimizes disruption to local businesses and residents.
- A region is heavily dependent on imports for its goods and faces challenges with port congestion in specific time periods. Freight modeling allows the regional agency to assess the benefits of introducing time-based delivery incentives to spread freight arrivals more evenly throughout the day, reducing peak-time congestion. By doing so, they can enhance the efficiency of their import process and ensure a steady supply of goods to their population.
Emerging Technologies. Progress in the electrification of transportation modes is fraught with uncertainty. Freight models help assess the effect of different battery and charging technologies on the organization of freight transportation, including impacts on fleet sizes and their delivery operations. Other examples in this area include:
- A city government may be exploring the integration of autonomous delivery vehicles into its freight network. Freight modeling helps the city evaluate potential changes in traffic patterns, identify necessary infrastructure upgrades, and understand the implications for road congestion. By modeling different scenarios, the city can create a strategic plan that reduces adverse effects.
- The e-commerce market continues to evolve and grove. While home deliveries are still increasing, new delivery options (lockers, in-store pick-up, in-trunk delivery, crowdshipping) may mitigate the increase of the number of vans in residential neighbourhoods. Freight and passenger models combined help assess the net impacts of e-commerce with various delivery options on freight flows.
Truck Parking: Truck drivers need facilities for refueling, battery charging, resting, servicing, buffering, overnight stays, or longer breaks. Freight models can help identify optimal locations for such facilities in an area based on the origins, destinations, and truck flows that are expected to pass through.
Energy and Emissions. Government agencies may be tasked with evaluation energy consumption or reducing GHG emissions from transportation. Freight modeling enables them to analyze the impact of various policies, such as incentives for electric trucks or increased rail freight usage. By comparing these scenarios, they can select and implement effective strategies to achieve their environmental goals.
Safety. Many transportation agencies contribute to safety planning, particularly for freight trucks, on their transportation networks. Freight modeling allows planners to identify high-traffic, high-risk areas, evaluate the impact of proposed safety improvements on truck volumes, and develop targeted improvements.